Sports Talk: Five Steps to Fantasy Success

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WITH OPENING DAY JUST over a week away, big-league rosters are finally starting to take shape. That means it's time to prove you have what it takes to compile the best team possible — even if you have to cheer for Alex Rodriguez, at left. Sadly, not every pick is going to be a home run (not everyone is A-Rod, after all), but Express picked the brain of "Baseball Prospectus" editor Christina Kahrl to come up with this list of strategies. What are you waiting for? Draft day is here.

Cardinal Rule
So, you have the first pick in the draft. Every big-leaguer is at your fingertips. Where to start? The Yankees' Rodriguez had 35 homers and 121 RBI in a down year. But there is Minnesota fireballer Johan Santana, the American League's Cy Young winner two of the past three years. Talk about a tough decision, right? Not really, Kahrl said. Your list should begin and end with St. Louis slugger Albert Pujols, who is "the best hitter in baseball"; Kahrl said.

Age of Innocence
Until proven guilty, Barry Bonds, Gary Sheffield and even Sammy Sosa — who is resurrecting his dormant career in Texas — are free to go about their business at the plate. One admitted steroid user, Yankee Jason Giambi, found some magical juice last year to regain the same form he had in Oakland. Of this group, Bonds makes the safest bet come draft day — though home run No. 756 counts the same as any long ball in fantasy sports. "Bonds will be perfectly fine," Kahrl said. "He's not done."

Don't be a Homer
Sure, you want to pick players you will cheer for, but the hometown Nationals have minimal fantasy options. Kahrl said the Nats may approach "historic territory" with their number of losses, which doesn't bode well for closer Chad Cordero, at right. And who knows about the oft-injured John Patterson? There is Ryan Zimmerman, who should continue to progress as the team's franchise player. "His upside is tremendous," Kahrl said.

Chicago Hope
Many experts say you can't run a real baseball team like a fantasy one. Someone forgot to tell the Cubs, who went with a Dan Snyder-esque approach this offseason. The prize catch, of course, was National-for-a-year Alfonso Soriano, who will patrol center field at Wrigley. As D.C. fans know, the All-Star joined the 40-40 club playing in pitcher-friendly RFK Stadium. "He'll be playing in an overall better lineup," noted Kahrl, who worries Soriano may still see so many intentional walks that his production may slip.

Roll the Dice?
There's no bigger question mark in all of baseball than new Red Sox pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, better known as Dice-K in Boston. While much has been made of the $100 million the Red Sox paid to get him, Kahrl said it was a bargain for what Boston received. "You are talking about the best pitcher on the free-agent market," she said, adding that Prospectus has a formula that translates overseas success to the majors.

Photo by Eliot J. Schechter/Getty Images and Jonathan Newton/The Washington Post