Gilmore's Out; '08 Races in Va. Shaping Up

OVER THE WEEKEND, former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore bowed out of the crowded race for the Republican presidential nomination.

For all intents and purposes, very few people watching the 2008 race for the White House noticed, as Gilmore barely registered a blip on a political radar screen already crowded with big and not-so-big names and couldn't raise the millions necessary to compete.

But might the former governor be back for a different race? Count on it. Says Gilmore, at right, on his campaign blog:

In the coming weeks and months, I intend to remain active in the Republican Party and in the public debate. I will be forming a state political action committee to assist Republican candidates in the Virginia General Assembly races. Additionally, I will be actively looking for other opportunities to continue in public service in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Virginia conservatives hope that Gilmore might run for U.S. Senate, should the commonwealth's current senior statesman, fellow Republican John Warner, step aside. Some observers say it's likely Warner, 80, will retire; the senator himself says he'll announce his intentions in September.

Should Warner bow out, another Warner — former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, no relation — is expected to run for the Democratic nomination to take his seat. Rep. Tom Davis, a moderate from Fairfax County has been an early favorite in chattering circles for the Republican nod if Warner retires.

Eighteen months from Election Day 2008, here are the current factors shaping Virginia politics ...

» FIRST, THERE'S ELECTION DAY 2007: While all eyes are looking forward to 2008 campaigning, there are still statehouse races to get through this year. And the results will take the temperature of Virginia's shifting political constituencies. Over the past two cycles, Democrats have been making gains in Washington's suburbs, making Northern Virginia the commonwealth's top political battleground. Three Republicans from Fairfax County, Jeannemarie Devolites Davis (married to Tom Davis), Ken Cuccinelli II and Jay O'Brien Jr., are facing tough state Senate challenges.

According to a survey by The Washington Post, the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard University, three-quarters of voters in Fairfax County said they had a favorable impression of the state Democratic Party. Across the commonwealth, state Democrats had a 64-percent favorability rating with a 10-point lead over the state GOP, The Post's Tim Craig and Jon Cohen report. Independent voters, expected to be Virginia's pivotal voting bloc, are siding more with Democrats than Republicans.

Still, the survey shows that more than half of respondents approve of the state Republican Party. So just as Gov. Tim Kaine hopes to bring Democratic majorities to the state Senate and General Assembly, the 2007 fight for control of Richmond will be no cakewalk.

» A BLUE VIRGINIA IN 2008? Last year's U.S. Senate race in Virginia, pitting Republican George Allen against Democrat Jim Webb, was a nail-biter — too close to call until the vote finally swung Webb's way. In 2008, might Virginia move squarely into the Democratic column? Indications so far point to that possibility.

According to the Post/Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard survey, slightly more than half of residents have an unfavorable view of the national Republican Party. As The Post's Tim Craig and Jennifer Agiesta wrote earlier this month:

Mirroring the national mood, Virginians' approval of Bush and support for U.S. policies in Iraq have eroded as the war has dragged on. Bush is the worst of the past nine presidents, say Virginia's independent voters, who helped him win in 2004 but now say they are more likely to prefer that a Democrat rather than a Republican be the next president.

So that could mean that Virginia's 13 electoral votes, which typically go to the Republican candidate, are up for grabs next year.

» "Gilmore Drops Out of GOP Contest" [Times-Dispatch]
» "Gilmore Drops Longshot Bid for Presidential Nomination" [Virginian-Pilot]
» "Statement From Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore" [Gilmore for President]
» "Voters Allow a Separation of Blame" [WaPo]
» "Virginia May Spurn GOP in '08" [WaPo]

Photo by Manny Garcia/AFP/Getty Images and Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Posted By Michael Grass at 2:45 PM on July 16, 2007 Tagged in Free Ride

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