Are You Ready for Some ... Pro Football Prospectus

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IT HASN'T TAKEN long for "Pro Football Prospectus" to become a must-read for football fans, and it's been especially welcomed by those yearning for September to finally just get here.

Just in time, "Prospectus" editor and FootballOutsiders.com founder Aaron Schatz will be at Politics & Prose on Tuesday to discuss "Pro Football Prospectus 2007" and the upcoming season.

As Bill James is to baseball stats, Schatz is considered his counterpart in football. His original analysis of statistics, not to mention his statistical methods, has created a whole new way of looking at the sport and evaluating teams and their players.

In other words, he's the guru of fantasy football geeks.

Express recently asked Schatz to tackle the issues for the new year.

» EXPRESS: Let's start with the local questions. "Prospectus" predicts an upswing for the Redskins this year, even though the team only added London Fletcher, LaRon Landry and Fred Smoot. Why should D.C. fans have hope?
» SCHATZ: Every team goes through injuries — it's a fact of life in the NFL — but the Redskins were absurdly injured last year. Their backup corners were just awful. Getting rid of Mike Rumph should help that. All they have to do is a little better on third down — it's the most important, because a lucky break on third down and you have four new downs. The Redskins were far worse on third down last year than the previous year. All those players we thought were good didn't just stop being good.

» EXPRESS: I see the book is high on quarterback Jason Campbell.
» SCHATZ: We're high on Campbell in the long term rather the short term. People underrate this guy. He was very good in college. But there's more to the offense than just him. Clinton Portis has major injury issues and there are only 1.5 receivers.

» EXPRESS: I assume you're counting Randle El as the half?
» SCHATZ: Brandon Lloyd is a jerk. We don't keep stats for biggest jerk, but he'd be high on it. If you play like T.O. [Terrell Owens] you can be a jerk. Lloyd is just a waste.

» EXPRESS: Speaking of receivers, "Prospectus" makes the case against Art Monk joining the Hall of Fame.
» SCHATZ: Art Monk is the only player to inspire the Hall of Fame debate you see in baseball. Monk is sort of like the Don Sutton of football. No one thought Sutton was a Hall of Famer until he won 300 games. Monk played at the end of one era and at the beginning of another where receivers were used more. In honesty, we're still on the fence about Monk. There is no slam-dunk case either way. One thing I'll say is that if any of those receivers are going to make the Hall, it should be Henry Ellard, who also played briefly for the Redskins.

» EXPRESS: Last year, Arizona was the hot pick for a turnaround season. This year, it seems like Detroit is in vogue. Any hope for the Lions?
» SCHATZ: I don't know how many people outside the Lions are expecting 10 wins. People are expecting a spectacular offense, which is reasonable. Mike Martz offenses are normally spectacular. But a great passing game does not make a winning team.

» EXPRESS: Aside from the Lions' Calvin Johnson, this year's rookie class seems less-star studded than last with Reggie Bush, Vince Young and Matt Leinart.
» SCHATZ: I don't think anybody will say this was not a great draft. It's just the strength was on defense and the offensive line. It's a fine rookie class, just not for playing fantasy football.

» EXPRESS: What do you think the Falcons were thinking letting go of Matt Schaub?
» SCHATZ: They feel like idiots, I'm sure.

» EXPRESS: The Patriots were big spenders this off-season. The strategy never seemed to work for the Redskins. Will it for New England?
» SCHATZ: Actually, the Patriots only spent real money on Adalius Thomas. Bill Belichick goes with the Lawrence Taylor philosophy: Only blow up your salary cap for someone who changes the game. The Patriots did that with Tom Brady and Richard Seymour, and now for Thomas. They got Randy Moss on a reduced contract; it's like a one-year deal. They got big names, not big contracts.

» EXPRESS: But even more than the money, the Redskins always seemed to have continuity problems.
» SCHATZ: The most important place for continuity is on the line. If you look at the Patriots, their offensive and defensive lines are the same from last season. The D-line is really the heart of that team.

» EXPRESS: It seems like coaching changes will play a bigger role than usual, especially with Chargers and Cowboys:
» SCHATZ: You mean a sucking effect?

» EXPRESS: Ha!
» SCHATZ: Norv Turner [San Diego's new coach] is a case where two teams got screwed equally. They took a great offensive coordinator away from the 49ers even though he's a proven bad head coach.

» EXPRESS: What do we make of Giants quarterback Eli Manning? Is this a make it or break it year for him?
» SCHATZ: Manning is who he is. He's the reincarnation of [former Redskins QB] Jay Schroeder in a Manning's body. He throws a great deep ball but has accuracy problems. He will be a fine quarterback but should never have been the No. 1 draft choice.

» EXPRESS: It will be interesting to see how the Giants do without Tiki Barber.
» SCHATZ: Interesting because they don't have a left tackle. Their most important losses were on the offensive line, not Tiki Barber. Brandon Jacobs is talented.

» EXPRESS: How do fantasy players adjust for so many two-back sets in the NFL now?
» SCHATZ: You just have to deal with it. I always say people should use an auction league. If you want a player, pay for it.

» EXPRESS: Any way LaDainian Tomlinson matches last year?
» SCHATZ: I doubt it. He had such a ridiculously high amount of touchdowns. A lot of that was a product of good field position, too.

» EXPRESS: Do you believe in the Madden Curse?
» SCHATZ: In general, the Madden Curse has been related to the players picked for the [video game] cover who are destined to decline anyway. Vince Young [the new cover boy] is the exception to this. He is an injury risk, though, because he runs so much. But I never saw Madden break his leg all those years he was on the cover.

» Politics & Prose, 5015 Connecticut Ave. NW; Tue., 7 p.m., free; 202-364-1919. (Van Ness-UDC)

Jason Campbell photo by Joe Murphy/Getty Images; Aaron Schatz photo courtesy Aaron Schatz; Brandon Lloyd photo courtesy NFL Media (graphic manipulation courtesy Express); Norv Turner photo by Joel Richardson/The Washington Post